Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Falcons CAR @ ATL

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

5-5  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

3-6  |  Home

27
Key Game
Feleipe Franks
KEY GAME

Feleipe Franks

#81 | Tight End
@
JD Bertrand
KEY GAME

JD Bertrand

#40 | Linebacker
Player
Feleipe Franks None-None
JD Bertrand None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
PANTHERS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

41.5%

Falcons Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ATL +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

CAR By 1-6 points

17.0%

CAR By 7-13 points

17.5%

ATL By 1-6 points

15.3%

ATL By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20
CAROLINA
17
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
17
CAROLINA
24
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u42.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CAR @ ATL 34 - 3
Nov 16, 2025 CAR @ ATL 30 - 27
Sep 21, 2025 ATL @ CAR 0 - 30
Jan 5, 2025 CAR @ ATL 44 - 38
Oct 13, 2024 ATL @ CAR 38 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.6% more
Carolina: 1.6 vs Atlanta: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Carolina: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.1% more
Carolina: 124.2 vs Atlanta: 107.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +47.3% more
Atlanta: 192.7 vs Carolina: 130.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 20.0 30
ATL Score 17.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 17.7 23.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 192.7 / 130.8 223.0 / 419.0
Rushing Yards 107.9 / 124.2 125.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 300.6 / 255.0 348.0 / 486.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 4.4 6.0 / 6.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CAR
ATL
CAR
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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