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CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

3-6  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 1:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

5-4  |  Home

34
Key Game
Ke'Shawn Williams
KEY GAME

Ke'Shawn Williams

#12 | Wide Receiver
@
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
Player
Ke'Shawn Williams None-None
Chris Boswell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
100%
📊
STEELERS
0%
BENGALS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Pittsburgh)
BengalsCIN (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

38.8%

Steelers Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

CIN By 1-6 points

14.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

12.1%

PIT By 1-6 points

17.0%

PIT By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
27
CINCINNATI
31
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
20
CINCINNATI
24
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Steelers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Steelers (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CIN @ PIT 27 - 30
Nov 16, 2025 CIN @ PIT 12 - 34
Oct 16, 2025 PIT @ CIN 31 - 33
Jan 4, 2025 CIN @ PIT 19 - 17
Dec 1, 2024 PIT @ CIN 44 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.5% more
Pittsburgh: 1.7 vs Cincinnati: 1.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +39.7% more
Cincinnati: 305.9 vs Pittsburgh: 184.6
First Downs (L5) +35.0% more
Cincinnati: 23.4 vs Pittsburgh: 15.2
Total Yards (L5) +34.2% more
Cincinnati: 401.3 vs Pittsburgh: 264.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 27.0 12
PIT Score 31.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.2 / 23.4 22.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 184.6 / 305.9 232.0 / 192.0
Rushing Yards 79.7 / 95.4 111.0 / 105.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 264.2 / 401.3 343.0 / 297.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 6.4 5.7 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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