Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Jaguars LAC @ JAX

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

7-3  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

5-4  |  Home

35
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
Cam Little
KEY GAME

Cam Little

#39 | Place kicker
Player
JK Scott None-None
Cam Little None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
0%
📊
JAGUARS
100%
CHARGERS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Los Angeles)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

69.1%

Jaguars Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-6 points

16.5%

LAC By 7-13 points

19.3%

JAX By 1-6 points

12.9%

JAX By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27
LOS ANGELES
20
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
27
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chargers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chargers (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 LAC @ JAX 6 - 35
Jan 14, 2023 LAC @ JAX 30 - 31
Sep 25, 2022 JAX @ LAC 38 - 10
Oct 25, 2020 JAX @ LAC 29 - 39
Dec 8, 2019 LAC @ JAX 45 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +18.0% more
Los Angeles: 229.5 vs Jacksonville: 188.3
Total Yards (L5) +17.2% more
Los Angeles: 358.9 vs Jacksonville: 297.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.8% more
Los Angeles: 129.5 vs Jacksonville: 109.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.8% more
Los Angeles: 5.3 vs Jacksonville: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 27.0 6
JAX Score 20.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 21.4 30.0 / 8.0
Net Passing Yards 188.3 / 229.5 153.0 / 93.0
Rushing Yards 109.0 / 129.5 192.0 / 42.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 297.2 / 358.9 345.0 / 135.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.5 / 5.3 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
LAC
JAX
LAC
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
TTL
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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