Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Cardinals SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

6-4  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 4:05 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

3-6  |  Home

22
Key Game
Eddy Pineiro
KEY GAME

Eddy Pineiro

#18 | Place kicker
@
Chad Ryland
KEY GAME

Chad Ryland

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Eddy Pineiro None-None
Chad Ryland None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
49ERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Arizona)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 CardinalsARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

23.8%

Cardinals Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARI -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SF By 1-6 points

10.7%

SF By 7-13 points

7.3%

ARI By 1-6 points

15.3%

ARI By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
17
SAN FRANCISCO
27
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
17
SAN FRANCISCO
31
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 30 - 36
Nov 16, 2025 SF @ ARI 41 - 22
Sep 21, 2025 ARI @ SF 15 - 16
Jan 5, 2025 SF @ ARI 24 - 47
Oct 6, 2024 ARI @ SF 24 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.8% more
Arizona: 117.5 vs San Francisco: 99.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.0% more
San Francisco: 5.8 vs Arizona: 4.9
Turnovers (L5) +15.0% more
San Francisco: 1.5 vs Arizona: 1.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +13.9% more
San Francisco: 255.5 vs Arizona: 219.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 17.0 41
ARI Score 27.0 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 21.8 24.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 219.9 / 255.5 452.0 / 186.0
Rushing Yards 117.5 / 99.7 36.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 337.4 / 355.2 488.0 / 281.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.8 6.9 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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