Home / NFL Projections NFL / Ravens @ Browns BAL @ CLE

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

4-5  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 4:25 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

2-7  |  Home

16
Key Game
Gage Larvadain
KEY GAME

Gage Larvadain

#-- | Wide Receiver
@
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
Player
Gage Larvadain None-None
Corey Bojorquez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
100%
📊
BROWNS
0%
RAVENS --
BROWNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
RavensBAL (-3.5) 0 BrownsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

47.2%

Browns Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

BAL By 1-6 points

16.1%

BAL By 7-13 points

14.6%

CLE By 1-6 points

16.7%

CLE By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20
BALTIMORE
21
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
20
BALTIMORE
24
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Browns Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Browns Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Browns (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Browns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o38.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u38.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 BAL @ CLE 23 - 16
Sep 14, 2025 CLE @ BAL 17 - 41
Jan 4, 2025 CLE @ BAL 10 - 35
Oct 27, 2024 BAL @ CLE 24 - 29
Nov 12, 2023 CLE @ BAL 33 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7 vs Baltimore: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.5% more
Baltimore: 150.2 vs Cleveland: 110.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +26.3% more
Baltimore: 5.4 vs Cleveland: 4.0
Total Yards (L5) +22.5% more
Baltimore: 324.2 vs Cleveland: 251.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 20.0 23
CLE Score 21.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 20.4 10.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 140.9 / 174.0 81.0 / 167.0
Rushing Yards 110.5 / 150.2 106.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.14 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 251.4 / 324.2 187.0 / 351.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.7 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 4.0 / 5.4 3.5 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BAL
CLE
BAL
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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