Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Broncos KC @ DEN

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

5-4  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 4:25 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

8-2  |  Home

22
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
CHIEFS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Denver)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

33.4%

Broncos Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

KC By 1-6 points

13.5%

KC By 7-13 points

10.4%

DEN By 1-6 points

16.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
21
KANSAS CITY
27
DENVER
Simulated Score
17
KANSAS CITY
28
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2026 DEN @ KC 10 - 31
Dec 25, 2025 DEN @ KC 20 - 13
Nov 16, 2025 KC @ DEN 19 - 22
Jan 5, 2025 KC @ DEN 0 - 38
Nov 10, 2024 DEN @ KC 14 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.0% more
Denver: 1.4 vs Kansas City: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +26.9% more
Kansas City: 22.5 vs Denver: 16.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.4% more
Kansas City: 254.7 vs Denver: 187.5
Total Yards (L5) +18.9% more
Kansas City: 371.7 vs Denver: 301.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 21.0 19
DEN Score 27.0 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.5 / 22.5 16.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 187.5 / 254.7 283.0 / 249.0
Rushing Yards 114.1 / 117.1 59.0 / 62.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 301.5 / 371.7 342.0 / 311.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.8 5.6 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
KC
DEN
KC
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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