Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Patriots NYJ @ NE

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

2-7  |  Road

14
FINAL
Thu, Nov 13 • 8:15 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

8-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
@
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
Player
Austin McNamara None-None
Bryce Baringer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
JETS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (New England)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

0.3%

Patriots Cover

99.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

NYJ By 1-6 points

0.2%

NYJ By 7-13 points

0.1%

NE By 1-6 points

0.9%

NE By 7-13 points

2.8%

AI Model Projected Score
0
NEW YORK
38
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
20
NEW YORK
23
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 NE @ NYJ 42 - 10
Nov 13, 2025 NYJ @ NE 14 - 27
Oct 27, 2024 NYJ @ NE 22 - 25
Sep 19, 2024 NE @ NYJ 3 - 24
Jan 7, 2024 NYJ @ NE 17 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +90.8% more
New England: 244.2 vs New York: 128.0
Total Yards (L5) +39.4% more
New England: 384.7 vs New York: 275.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +37.1% more
New England: 6.3 vs New York: 4.6
Turnovers (L5) +29.0% more
New England: 1.3 vs New York: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 0.0 14
NE Score 38.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 16.4 23.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 244.2 / 128.0 271.0 / 105.0
Rushing Yards 140.5 / 147.9 65.0 / 140.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 384.7 / 275.9 336.0 / 245.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.3 / 4.6 5.4 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
NYJ
NE
NYJ
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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