Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Spurs GS @ SA

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

6-6  |  Road

125
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

8-2  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
SPURS
0%
WARRIORS --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (San Antonio)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

0.0%

Spurs Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

GS By 1-7 points

0.0%

GS By 8-14 points

0.0%

SA By 1-7 points

0.1%

SA By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
86
GOLDEN STATE
124
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
110
GOLDEN STATE
122
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spurs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spurs (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Spurs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u232.5 Loss
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 SA @ GS 127 - 113
Feb 11, 2026 SA @ GS 126 - 113
Nov 14, 2025 GS @ SA 109 - 108
Nov 12, 2025 GS @ SA 125 - 120
Apr 9, 2025 SA @ GS 114 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +10.4% more
San Antonio: 25.9 vs Golden State: 23.5
Blocks (L5) +9.5% more
San Antonio: 5.0 vs Golden State: 4.5
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
San Antonio: 50.7% vs Golden State: 44.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
San Antonio: 77.3% vs Golden State: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 86.0 125
SA Score 124.0 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 34.2 36.0 / 37.0
Assists 25.9 / 23.5 30.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.5 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 44.6 49.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 73.4 88.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 39.5 / 38.5 49.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.7 / 10.5 5.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 15.1 20.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
GS
SA
GS
ML
60% 111-73
55% 95-79
58% 61-44
58% 49-35
ATS
58% 107-76-1
58% 101-73
58% 61-44
58% 49-35
TTL
74% 134-47-3
77% 134-40
100% 105-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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