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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

6-5  |  Road

123
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

3-8  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
SUNS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

46.0%

Mavericks Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

PHX By 1-7 points

24.3%

PHX By 8-14 points

13.7%

DAL By 1-7 points

26.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
117
PHOENIX
118
DALLAS
Simulated Score
109
PHOENIX
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+2) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o228.0 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u228.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 DAL @ PHX 107 - 112
Feb 10, 2026 DAL @ PHX 111 - 120
Nov 12, 2025 PHX @ DAL 123 - 114
Mar 9, 2025 PHX @ DAL 125 - 116
Dec 27, 2024 DAL @ PHX 98 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +57.4% more
Dallas: 6.3 vs Phoenix: 4.0
Rebounding (L5) +17.8% more
Dallas: 45.2 vs Phoenix: 38.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.2%
Phoenix: 41.1% vs Dallas: 26.9%
Assists (L5) +9.6% more
Phoenix: 25.7 vs Dallas: 23.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 117.0 123
DAL Score 118.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.9 / 41.1 36.0 / 40.0
Assists 23.2 / 25.7 32.0 / 31.0
Blocks 6.3 / 4.0 10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 48.3 50.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 72.5 65.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 45.2 / 38.4 45.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.3 / 9.7 10.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 14.9 21.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
PHX
DAL
PHX
ML
62% 63-39
57% 60-45
54% 44-37
51% 45-43
ATS
67% 68-34
58% 59-43-3
54% 44-37
51% 45-43
TTL
59% 60-41-1
59% 61-42-2
100% 81-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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