MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
4-8 | Road
95
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
5-7 | Home
131
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
CELTICS
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
260.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
2.7%
MEM By 8-14 points
9.3%
BOS By 1-7 points
0.4%
BOS By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
143
MEMPHIS
Boston
117
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Memphis
108
MEMPHIS
Boston
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Loss
Proj Total: 260.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
BOS @ MEM
117 - 112
Nov 12, 2025
MEM @ BOS
95 - 131
Oct 8, 2025
BOS @ MEM
121 - 103
Mar 31, 2025
BOS @ MEM
117 - 103
Dec 7, 2024
MEM @ BOS
127 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+33.2% more
Memphis: 16.4
vs
Boston: 10.9
Assists (L5)
+21.3% more
Memphis: 28.3
vs
Boston: 22.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Memphis: 74.7%
vs
Boston: 71.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Memphis: 36.0%
vs
Boston: 34.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
143.0
95
BOS Score
117.0
131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 36.0
41.0 / 23.0
Assists
22.3 / 28.3
34.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.8
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 45.2
51.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
71.2 / 74.7
83.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
42.0 / 42.4
58.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.4 / 6.1
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 16.4
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MEM
BOS
MEM
ML
57%
61-46
57%
59-44
53%
47-41
50%
41-41
ATS
59%
61-43-3
63%
65-38
53%
47-41
50%
41-41
TTL
56%
60-47
70%
71-31-1
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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