CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
7-4 | Road
130
MIAMI
HEATMIA
7-4 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
HEAT
0%
CAVALIERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CLE By 1-7 points
24.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
13.7%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
124
CLEVELAND
Miami
125
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Cleveland
104
CLEVELAND
Miami
108
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o238.5
Win
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim
u238.5
Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 27, 2026
MIA @ CLE
128 - 149
Mar 25, 2026
MIA @ CLE
120 - 103
Nov 12, 2025
CLE @ MIA
130 - 116
Nov 10, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 140
Apr 28, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+29.8% more
Miami: 12.9
vs
Cleveland: 9.9
Steals (L5)
+16.7% more
Miami: 9.6
vs
Cleveland: 8.2
Assists (L5)
+12.9% more
Miami: 30.2
vs
Cleveland: 26.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.8%
Miami: 78.1%
vs
Cleveland: 68.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
124.0
130
MIA Score
125.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 37.1
41.0 / 30.0
Assists
30.2 / 26.8
29.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.0 / 4.9
6.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 45.6
48.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
78.1 / 68.3
85.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
44.0 / 44.4
44.0 / 49.0
Steals
9.6 / 8.2
6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 9.9
21.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CLE
MIA
CLE
ML
48%
46-50
60%
69-46
59%
48-34
56%
55-44
ATS
51%
49-47
67%
75-37-3
59%
48-34
56%
55-44
TTL
59%
57-39
59%
68-47
100%
82-0
100%
99-0
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