Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Pelicans POR @ NO

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

5-5  |  Road

125
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

2-8  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Orleans)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

46.0%

Pelicans Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

POR By 1-7 points

24.3%

POR By 8-14 points

13.7%

NO By 1-7 points

26.2%

NO By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
124
PORTLAND
125
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
115
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+8) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.0 Win
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim u232.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 NO @ POR 106 - 118
Jan 2, 2026 POR @ NO 122 - 109
Dec 11, 2025 POR @ NO 120 - 143
Nov 12, 2025 POR @ NO 125 - 117
Jan 8, 2025 POR @ NO 119 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +36.8% more
New Orleans: 8.7 vs Portland: 6.3
Turnovers (L5) +13.6% more
New Orleans: 14.7 vs Portland: 12.9
Free Throw % (L5) +2.7%
New Orleans: 69.8% vs Portland: 67.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
New Orleans: 35.5% vs Portland: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 124.0 125
NO Score 125.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 33.0 33.0 / 35.0
Assists 20.0 / 20.6 28.0 / 26.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.3 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 43.7 47.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 67.1 86.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 38.0 35.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.7 / 6.3 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 12.9 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
POR
NO
POR
ML
62% 98-61
53% 56-49
58% 48-35
55% 49-40
ATS
68% 107-51-1
62% 65-39-1
58% 48-35
55% 49-40
TTL
75% 119-40
56% 58-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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