NEW YORK
RANGERSNYR
8-7-2 | Road
7
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
8-5-2 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Igor Shesterkin
#31 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin | None-None | 3.00 | 0.917 | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 7.50 | 0.615 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00 Ldr
GAA
7.50
0.917 Ldr
Save %
0.615
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
0%
LIGHTNING
100%
RANGERS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NYR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)
NYR By 1 goal
17.5%
NYR By 2-3 goals
37.2%
TB By 1 goal
6.6%
TB By 2-3 goals
3.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
1
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Lightning (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
TB @ NYR
1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
NYR @ TB
4 - 2
Nov 29, 2025
TB @ NYR
4 - 1
Nov 12, 2025
NYR @ TB
7 - 3
Apr 17, 2025
TB @ NYR
0 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+25.8% more
New York: 24.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 17.9
Takeaways (L5)
+12.5% more
New York: 5.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 5.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.5%
New York: 51.7%
vs
Tampa Bay: 44.2%
Power Play % (L5)
+8.2%
Tampa Bay: 30.4%
vs
New York: 22.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYR Score
3.0
7
TB Score
1.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.2 / 14.1
19.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
44.2 / 51.7
45.2 / 54.8
Hits
17.9 / 24.1
26.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
30.4 / 22.3
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
24.9 / 25.5
36.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 5.7
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYR
TB
NYR
ML
67%
2-1
80%
4-1
67%
2-1
40%
2-3
ATS
67%
2-1
80%
4-1
33%
1-2
60%
3-2
TTL
67%
2-1
60%
3-2
100%
3-0
60%
3-2
Contextual Game News
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
Islanders Lock Up Czech Blueliner Vladimir Dravecky with Three-Y…