BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
5-6-4 | Road
2
UTAH
MAMMOTHUTA
9-7-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Colten Ellis
#92 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Karel Vejmelka
#70 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis | None-None | 4.15 | 0.889 | -- |
| Karel Vejmelka | None-None | 2.00 | 0.895 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.15
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.889
Save %
Ldr 0.895
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
MAMMOTH
0%
SABRES
--
MAMMOTH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around UTA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
UTA By 1 goal
19.7%
UTA By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Utah
4
UTAH
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Utah
3
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mammoth
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mammoth
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mammoth (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Mammoth (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 12, 2025
BUF @ UTA
2 - 5
Nov 4, 2025
UTA @ BUF
2 - 1
Mar 20, 2025
BUF @ UTA
2 - 5
Dec 7, 2024
UTA @ BUF
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+14.0% more
Utah: 29.0
vs
Buffalo: 25.4
Blocked Shots (L5)
+37.1% more
Buffalo: 16.0
vs
Utah: 10.1
Hits (L5)
+15.1% more
Buffalo: 19.4
vs
Utah: 16.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
2
UTA Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
10.1 / 16.0
9.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
46.2 / 45.2
58.8 / 41.2
Hits
16.5 / 19.4
16.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
406.0 / 299.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.0 / 25.4
37.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 4.4
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
BUF
UTA
BUF
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
TTL
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
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