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UMBC

RETRIEVERSUMBC

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81
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 6:00 PM ET
Hill Field House
View Odds Details →

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

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79
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
RETRIEVERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MORGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Morgan State)
RetrieversUMBC (-3.5) 0 BearsMORG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Retrievers Cover

8.1%

Bears Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORG -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORG)

UMBC By 1-7 points

5.8%

UMBC By 8-14 points

1.4%

MORG By 1-7 points

16.9%

MORG By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
78
UMBC
92
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
71
UMBC
78
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o162.5 Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 UMBC @ MORG 81 - 79
Nov 27, 2024 MORG @ UMBC 69 - 92
Dec 6, 2023 UMBC @ MORG 80 - 92
Dec 10, 2022 MORG @ UMBC 63 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +133.8% more
Morgan State: 5.2 vs UMBC: 2.2
Steals (L5) +51.4% more
Morgan State: 8.2 vs UMBC: 5.4
Turnovers (L5) +36.6% more
Morgan State: 15.3 vs UMBC: 11.2
Rebounding (L5) +14.9% more
Morgan State: 37.3 vs UMBC: 32.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score 78.0 81
MORG Score 92.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 42.0 47.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.8 / 12.9 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 5.2 / 2.2 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 44.7 43.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 71.2 77.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 32.5 33.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.2 / 5.4 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 11.2 9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
MORG
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
MORG
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
UMBC
MORG
UMBC
ML
50% 14-14
58% 18-13
58% 14-10
55% 17-14
ATS
50% 14-14
68% 21-10
58% 14-10
55% 17-14
TTL
50% 14-14
39% 12-19
100% 24-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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