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NAVY

MIDSHIPMENNAVY

1-1  |  Road

71
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 6:30 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

2-0  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
MIDSHIPMEN
100%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
0%
MIDSHIPMEN --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Penn State)
MidshipmenNAVY (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Midshipmen Cover

15.9%

Nittany Lions Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

NAVY By 1-7 points

10.7%

NAVY By 8-14 points

3.3%

PSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

PSU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
68
NAVY
78
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
61
NAVY
76
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 NAVY @ PSU 71 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +28.8% more
Penn State: 15.9 vs Navy: 12.3
Rebounding (L5) +13.1% more
Penn State: 35.7 vs Navy: 31.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.0%
Penn State: 39.3% vs Navy: 30.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Penn State: 50.2% vs Navy: 44.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 68.0 71
PSU Score 78.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 30.3 32.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.9 / 12.3 12.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.2 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 44.0 49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 74.6 78.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 31.6 30.0 / 29.0
Steals 6.1 / 7.9 14.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 12.6 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY Advantage
20-11-1 (64.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.3
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
NAVY
PSU
NAVY
ML
72% 23-9
79% 26-7
56% 18-14
55% 18-15
ATS
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
56% 18-14
55% 18-15
TTL
66% 21-11
73% 24-9
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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