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FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

2-0  |  Road

76
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Stephen C. O'Connell Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

GATORSFLA

1-1  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
100%
📊
GATORS
0%
SEMINOLES --
GATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Florida)
SeminolesFSU (-3.5) 0 GatorsFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seminoles Cover

8.1%

Gators Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FLA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

FSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

FSU By 8-14 points

1.4%

FLA By 1-7 points

16.9%

FLA By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
63
FLORIDA STATE
77
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
68
FLORIDA STATE
72
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gators Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gators Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gators (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Gators (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u180.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u180.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 FSU @ FLA 76 - 78
Nov 15, 2024 FLA @ FSU 87 - 74
Nov 17, 2023 FSU @ FLA 68 - 89
Nov 18, 2022 FLA @ FSU 76 - 67
Nov 14, 2021 FSU @ FLA 55 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +23.6% more
Florida: 47.9 vs Florida State: 38.8
Turnovers (L5) +18.4% more
Florida: 14.0 vs Florida State: 11.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Florida State: 34.8% vs Florida: 27.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +6.2%
Florida State: 77.3% vs Florida: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 63.0 76
FLA Score 77.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.2 / 34.8 19.0 / 26.0
Assists 16.2 / 17.2 15.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.9 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 47.2 39.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 77.3 69.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 47.9 / 38.8 58.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.7 / 8.3 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 11.8 18.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
FLA Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
FLA
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
FSU
FLA
FSU
ML
77% 27-8
64% 21-12
63% 22-13
59% 19-13
ATS
69% 24-11
55% 18-15
63% 22-13
59% 19-13
TTL
63% 22-13
48% 16-17
100% 35-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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