Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Spartans @ Monarchs NORF @ ODU

NORFOLK STATE

SPARTANSNORF

2-1  |  Road

57
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Chartway Arena
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

1-1  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
MONARCHS
0%
SPARTANS --
MONARCHS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Old Dominion)
SpartansNORF (-3.5) 0 MonarchsODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

15.9%

Monarchs Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ODU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

NORF By 1-7 points

10.7%

NORF By 8-14 points

3.3%

ODU By 1-7 points

23.0%

ODU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
66
NORFOLK STATE
76
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
69
NORFOLK STATE
73
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Monarchs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Monarchs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Monarchs (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Monarchs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 NORF @ ODU 57 - 60
Dec 3, 2022 NORF @ ODU 62 - 68
Dec 2, 2020 ODU @ NORF 80 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.8% more
Old Dominion: 4.9 vs Norfolk State: 3.7
Rebounding (L5) +11.6% more
Old Dominion: 42.8 vs Norfolk State: 38.3
Free Throw % (L5) +9.8%
Old Dominion: 77.8% vs Norfolk State: 68.0%
Steals (L5) +42.1% more
Norfolk State: 10.4 vs Old Dominion: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NORF Score 66.0 57
ODU Score 76.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.9 / 33.6 17.0 / 24.0
Assists 13.6 / 14.3 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.9 / 3.7 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 48.6 41.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 68.0 74.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 42.8 / 38.3 30.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.0 / 10.4 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 13.6 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NORF Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
ODU
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NORF
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
ODU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1% Total +/-: +4.6
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
NORF
ODU
NORF
ML
52% 17-16
67% 20-10
67% 22-11
71% 20-8
ATS
70% 23-10
63% 19-11
67% 22-11
72% 21-8
TTL
70% 23-10
60% 18-12
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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