Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rockets @ Raiders TOL @ WRST

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

0-2  |  Road

81
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Nutter Center
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WRIGHT STATE

RAIDERSWRST

1-1  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
RAIDERS
0%
ROCKETS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
WRIGHT STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Wright State)
RocketsTOL (-3.5) 0 RaidersWRST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

18.4%

Raiders Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WRST -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WRST)

TOL By 1-7 points

12.2%

TOL By 8-14 points

4.0%

WRST By 1-7 points

24.3%

WRST By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
79
TOLEDO
88
WRIGHT STATE
Simulated Score
73
TOLEDO
78
WRIGHT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raiders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 TOL @ WRST 81 - 71
Nov 13, 2024 WRST @ TOL 77 - 86
Nov 14, 2023 TOL @ WRST 78 - 77
Dec 21, 2019 WRST @ TOL 79 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +45.2% more
Wright State: 3.2 vs Toledo: 2.2
Steals (L5) +18.8% more
Wright State: 8.4 vs Toledo: 7.1
Rebounding (L5) +13.9% more
Wright State: 36.3 vs Toledo: 31.9
Assists (L5) +9.4% more
Wright State: 16.7 vs Toledo: 15.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 79.0 81
WRST Score 88.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 34.4 38.0 / 50.0
Assists 16.7 / 15.2 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.2 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 45.9 55.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 63.8 / 79.9 87.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 36.3 / 31.9 21.0 / 28.0
Steals 8.4 / 7.1 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 11.0 19.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
WRST Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
WRST Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
WRST
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WRST
TOL
WRST
TOL
ML
37% 13-22
48% 16-17
63% 22-13
61% 20-13
ATS
46% 16-19
48% 16-17
63% 22-13
61% 20-13
TTL
63% 22-13
64% 21-12
100% 35-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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