Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flyers @ Bearcats DAY @ CIN

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

2-0  |  Road

62
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Arena
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BEARCATSCIN

2-0  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
0%
📊
BEARCATS
100%
FLYERS --
BEARCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Dayton)
FlyersDAY (-3.5) 0 BearcatsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

98.9%

Bearcats Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAY -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

DAY By 1-7 points

4.8%

DAY By 8-14 points

13.7%

CIN By 1-7 points

0.8%

CIN By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
88
DAYTON
65
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
68
DAYTON
72
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flyers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Flyers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Bearcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 DAY @ CIN 62 - 74
Dec 20, 2024 CIN @ DAY 66 - 59
Dec 16, 2023 DAY @ CIN 82 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +16.2% more
Dayton: 4.1 vs Cincinnati: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
Dayton: 73.3% vs Cincinnati: 65.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Dayton: 48.6% vs Cincinnati: 44.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Dayton: 33.7% vs Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAY Score 88.0 62
CIN Score 65.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.5 / 33.7 47.0 / 8.0
Assists 16.2 / 15.2 16.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.5 / 4.1 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 48.6 47.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 65.6 / 73.3 62.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 30.9 43.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.7 / 8.6 5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 8.4 24.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
CIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
CIN
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
DAY
CIN
DAY
ML
67% 22-11
65% 24-13
74% 23-8
64% 23-13
ATS
64% 21-12
68% 25-12
74% 23-8
64% 23-13
TTL
67% 22-11
57% 21-16
100% 31-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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