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MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

0-2  |  Road

74
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 7:00 PM ET
DeGol Arena
View Odds Details →

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

0-2  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
RED FLASH
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
RED FLASH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAINT FRANCIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Saint Francis)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 Red FlashSFPA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

46.0%

Red Flash Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SFPA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFPA)

MSM By 1-7 points

24.3%

MSM By 8-14 points

13.7%

SFPA By 1-7 points

26.2%

SFPA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
62
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
63
SAINT FRANCIS
Simulated Score
68
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
72
SAINT FRANCIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Flash Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Flash Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Flash (+6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Red Flash (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 MSM @ SFPA 74 - 66
Nov 16, 2024 SFPA @ MSM 58 - 66
Dec 15, 2023 MSM @ SFPA 72 - 65
Feb 12, 2022 MSM @ SFPA 54 - 52
Jan 29, 2022 SFPA @ MSM 54 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +77.1% more
Saint Francis: 6.3 vs Mount St. Mary's: 3.5
Assists (L5) +14.4% more
Saint Francis: 14.0 vs Mount St. Mary's: 12.2
Blocks (L5) +9.4% more
Saint Francis: 2.0 vs Mount St. Mary's: 1.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.2%
Saint Francis: 34.5% vs Mount St. Mary's: 26.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 62.0 74
SFPA Score 63.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 26.3 26.0 / 43.0
Assists 14.0 / 12.2 13.0 / 21.0
Blocks 2.0 / 1.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 40.1 35.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 72.4 72.0 / 39.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 38.5 39.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.3 / 3.5 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 15.3 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
SFPA
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
SFPA
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFPA
MSM
SFPA
MSM
ML
68% 21-10
53% 17-15
67% 20-10
61% 19-12
ATS
68% 21-10
62% 20-12
67% 20-10
61% 19-12
TTL
58% 18-13
81% 26-6
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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