DUKE
BLUE DEVILSDUKE
2-0 | Road
114
ARMY
BLACK KNIGHTSARMY
1-1 | Home
59
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
0%
BLACK KNIGHTS
100%
BLUE DEVILS
--
BLACK KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Duke)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUKE -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)
DUKE By 1-7 points
20.1%
DUKE By 8-14 points
27.2%
ARMY By 1-7 points
8.0%
ARMY By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Duke
81
DUKE
Army
69
ARMY
Simulated Score
Duke
55
DUKE
Army
88
ARMY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Devils
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Black Knights
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Devils (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Black Knights (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 11, 2025
DUKE @ ARMY
114 - 59
Nov 8, 2024
ARMY @ DUKE
58 - 100
Nov 12, 2021
ARMY @ DUKE
56 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+61.8% more
Duke: 3.8
vs
Army: 1.4
Assists (L5)
+21.6% more
Duke: 17.8
vs
Army: 14.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.8%
Duke: 77.7%
vs
Army: 65.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.6%
Duke: 38.9%
vs
Army: 29.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score
81.0
114
ARMY Score
69.0
59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.4 / 38.9
24.0 / 43.0
Assists
14.0 / 17.8
13.0 / 25.0
Blocks
1.4 / 3.8
0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
40.1 / 47.3
31.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
65.9 / 77.7
71.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 40.6
27.0 / 48.0
Steals
7.0 / 6.6
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 9.4
17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE
Advantage
35-3-0
(92.1%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
ARMY
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE
Advantage
20-18-0
(52.6%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
ARMY
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2%
Total +/-: -3.2
ARMY
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARMY
DUKE
ARMY
DUKE
ML
44%
14-18
71%
27-11
50%
16-16
73%
24-9
ATS
44%
14-18
79%
30-8
50%
16-16
73%
24-9
TTL
81%
26-6
47%
18-20
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
Duke's Cameron Crazies Crowned Top Student Section for 2026-27
Duke Hosts Five-Star Asa Montgomery for Official Visit, Looking …
Caleb Foster Anchors Duke's Loaded Backcourt for 2026-27