Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Blazers ALST @ UAB

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

0-1  |  Road

77
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Bartow Arena
View Odds Details →

UAB

BLAZERSUAB

1-1  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
BLAZERS
0%
HORNETS --
BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
UAB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (UAB)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 BlazersUAB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

8.1%

Blazers Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UAB -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAB)

ALST By 1-7 points

5.8%

ALST By 8-14 points

1.4%

UAB By 1-7 points

16.9%

UAB By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
74
ALABAMA STATE
88
UAB
Simulated Score
65
ALABAMA STATE
87
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blazers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blazers (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Blazers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 ALST @ UAB 77 - 74
Nov 7, 2022 ALST @ UAB 70 - 111
Dec 21, 2019 ALST @ UAB 63 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +44.4% more
UAB: 15.5 vs Alabama State: 10.7
Rebounding (L5) +14.9% more
UAB: 41.5 vs Alabama State: 36.1
Blocks (L5) +12.4% more
UAB: 2.4 vs Alabama State: 2.1
Steals (L5) +12.3% more
UAB: 10.1 vs Alabama State: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 74.0 77
UAB Score 88.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.5 / 29.7 10.0 / 32.0
Assists 15.5 / 10.7 10.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.1 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 37.4 41.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 68.9 / 57.2 78.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 36.1 43.0 / 39.0
Steals 10.1 / 9.0 5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 11.2 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
UAB Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
UAB Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
UAB
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
ALST
UAB
ALST
ML
59% 19-13
65% 20-11
41% 13-19
76% 19-6
ATS
56% 18-14
65% 20-11
41% 13-19
76% 19-6
TTL
69% 22-10
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shockers Stumble in Charity Exhibition Against Murray State, 93-…
thesunflower 0 minutes ago
Melvin Council Jr. Wins Eligibility Appeal, Returns to Kansas fo…
kwch 4 days ago
Nuggets Eye Ryan Nembhard as Potential Two-Way Steal if Hornets …
yahoo 2 weeks, 1 day ago
Illinois vs. Duke: Can the Illini Ride Their Week 1 Momentum to …
si 3 weeks, 6 days ago
Illinois Injury Report: Key Lineman Out, Linebacker and Receiver…
headtopics 1 month ago