KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
2-0 | Road
88
LOUISVILLE
CARDINALSLOU
2-0 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
WILDCATS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Louisville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LOU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)
UK By 1-7 points
23.0%
UK By 8-14 points
12.2%
LOU By 1-7 points
26.8%
LOU By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Kentucky
71
KENTUCKY
Louisville
73
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
Kentucky
69
KENTUCKY
Louisville
76
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 11, 2025
UK @ LOU
88 - 96
Dec 14, 2024
LOU @ UK
85 - 93
Dec 21, 2023
UK @ LOU
95 - 76
Dec 31, 2022
LOU @ UK
63 - 86
Dec 26, 2020
UK @ LOU
59 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+35.4% more
Louisville: 8.5
vs
Kentucky: 6.3
Turnovers (L5)
+21.5% more
Louisville: 11.6
vs
Kentucky: 9.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.8%
Louisville: 75.4%
vs
Kentucky: 70.6%
Blocks (L5)
+35.5% more
Kentucky: 3.8
vs
Louisville: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UK Score
71.0
88
LOU Score
73.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 35.5
32.0 / 35.0
Assists
18.2 / 20.4
20.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.8
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 49.5
45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 70.6
68.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
42.4 / 42.4
40.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.5 / 6.3
11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 9.5
6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
LOU
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
LOU
17-18-0
(48.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
UK
LOU
UK
ML
63%
22-13
71%
25-10
71%
24-10
72%
23-9
ATS
71%
25-10
83%
29-6
71%
24-10
72%
23-9
TTL
63%
22-13
63%
22-13
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
.jpg)
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …