Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warriors @ Texans MRMK @ TAR

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

0-2  |  Road

62
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Wisdom Gym
View Odds Details →

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

1-2  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
WARRIORS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
111.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tarleton State)
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 TexansTAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

46.0%

Texans Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TAR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

MRMK By 1-7 points

24.3%

MRMK By 8-14 points

13.7%

TAR By 1-7 points

26.2%

TAR By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
55
MERRIMACK
56
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
68
MERRIMACK
71
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.0 Win
Proj Total: 111.0
D
Sim u143.0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 MRMK @ TAR 62 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.6% more
Tarleton State: 12.8 vs Merrimack: 9.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
Tarleton State: 37.5% vs Merrimack: 29.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Tarleton State: 42.2% vs Merrimack: 35.1%
Steals (L5) +31.3% more
Merrimack: 9.0 vs Tarleton State: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 55.0 62
TAR Score 56.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 29.3 18.0 / 18.0
Assists 10.0 / 9.9 12.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.9 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 35.1 49.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 74.4 72.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 29.2 / 27.1 39.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.2 / 9.0 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 9.3 17.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
TAR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
MRMK
TAR
MRMK
ML
59% 19-13
47% 16-18
66% 21-11
65% 22-12
ATS
69% 22-10
53% 18-16
66% 21-11
65% 22-12
TTL
50% 16-16
62% 21-13
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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