Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Owls SFA @ RICE

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

LUMBERJACKSSFA

2-0  |  Road

81
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Tudor Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

RICE

OWLSRICE

1-1  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
📊
OWLS
0%
LUMBERJACKS --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
RICE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Rice)
LumberjacksSFA (-3.5) 0 OwlsRICE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

46.0%

Owls Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around RICE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICE)

SFA By 1-7 points

24.3%

SFA By 8-14 points

13.7%

RICE By 1-7 points

26.2%

RICE By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
68
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
69
RICE
Simulated Score
69
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
72
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Owls Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Owls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Owls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Owls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 SFA @ RICE 81 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +11.8% more
Rice: 7.2 vs Stephen F. Austin: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5) +9.1%
Rice: 70.4% vs Stephen F. Austin: 61.2%
Blocks (L5) +41.8% more
Stephen F. Austin: 5.2 vs Rice: 3.0
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Stephen F. Austin: 43.9% vs Rice: 42.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFA Score 68.0 81
RICE Score 69.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 33.8 43.0 / 43.0
Assists 14.2 / 14.6 9.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.0 / 5.2 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 43.9 35.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 70.4 / 61.2 68.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 39.7 / 42.9 39.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.2 / 6.4 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 11.4 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
RICE
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA Advantage
23-9-0 (71.9%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
RICE
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.9
RICE
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
SFA
RICE
SFA
ML
53% 16-14
59% 17-12
53% 16-14
79% 23-6
ATS
60% 18-12
59% 17-12
53% 16-14
79% 23-6
TTL
77% 23-7
62% 18-11
100% 30-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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