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ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

2-1  |  Road

86
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

2-1  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
RED WOLVES --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
106.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Missouri State)
Red WolvesARST (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wolves Cover

21.2%

Bears Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MOST -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

ARST By 1-7 points

13.7%

ARST By 8-14 points

4.8%

MOST By 1-7 points

25.3%

MOST By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
49
ARKANSAS STATE
57
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
68
ARKANSAS STATE
72
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+2) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.0 Loss
Proj Total: 106.0
D
Sim u152.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 ARST @ MOST 86 - 85
Dec 11, 2019 ARST @ MOST 53 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +42.9% more
Missouri State: 18.8 vs Arkansas State: 13.2
Blocks (L5) +40.8% more
Missouri State: 2.9 vs Arkansas State: 2.1
Rebounding (L5) +19.1% more
Missouri State: 43.3 vs Arkansas State: 36.3
Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Missouri State: 47.3% vs Arkansas State: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 49.0 86
MOST Score 57.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 30.0 29.0 / 23.0
Assists 18.8 / 13.2 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.1 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 40.0 46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 77.6 73.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 43.3 / 36.3 32.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.3 / 8.3 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 12.2 12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
ARST
MOST
ARST
ML
65% 22-12
48% 15-16
62% 21-13
53% 16-14
ATS
68% 23-11
58% 18-13
62% 21-13
53% 16-14
TTL
44% 15-19
61% 19-12
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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