CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
2-1 | Road
68
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
BISONNDSU
0-2 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
MATADORS
0%
BISON
100%
MATADORS
--
BISON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NDSU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)
CSUN By 1-7 points
26.2%
CSUN By 8-14 points
16.9%
NDSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
NDSU By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Northridge
75
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
North Dakota State
74
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
Cal State Northridge
68
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
North Dakota State
73
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Matadors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bison
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bison (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Bison (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 11, 2025
CSUN @ NDSU
68 - 90
Dec 10, 2021
CSUN @ NDSU
54 - 68
Dec 11, 2019
NDSU @ CSUN
71 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+34.5% more
Cal State Northridge: 16.0
vs
North Dakota State: 10.5
Rebounding (L5)
+18.7% more
Cal State Northridge: 43.1
vs
North Dakota State: 35.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.9%
Cal State Northridge: 36.5%
vs
North Dakota State: 24.6%
Assists (L5)
+11.5% more
Cal State Northridge: 15.5
vs
North Dakota State: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUN Score
75.0
68
NDSU Score
74.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
24.6 / 36.5
26.0 / 28.0
Assists
13.8 / 15.5
14.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.1
9.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
41.8 / 45.6
39.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
80.6 / 68.3
77.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
35.0 / 43.1
47.0 / 41.0
Steals
6.2 / 5.3
14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 16.0
10.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUN
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
NDSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
NDSU
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
CSUN
NDSU
CSUN
ML
49%
17-18
58%
19-14
59%
20-14
67%
22-11
ATS
54%
19-16
58%
19-14
59%
20-14
67%
22-11
TTL
43%
15-20
58%
19-14
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
