Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Badgers BALL @ WIS

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

2-0  |  Road

55
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 8:30 PM ET
Kohl Center
View Odds Details →

WISCONSIN

BADGERSWIS

2-0  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
BADGERS
0%
CARDINALS --
BADGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Wisconsin)
CardinalsBALL (-3.5) 0 BadgersWIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

24.2%

Badgers Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIS -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)

BALL By 1-7 points

15.3%

BALL By 8-14 points

5.8%

WIS By 1-7 points

26.2%

WIS By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
BALL STATE
76
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
60
BALL STATE
72
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Badgers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Badgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Badgers (+26.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Badgers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 BALL @ WIS 55 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +13.7%
Wisconsin: 80.5% vs Ball State: 66.8%
Assists (L5) +12.6% more
Wisconsin: 14.5 vs Ball State: 12.9
Turnovers (L5) +29.3% more
Ball State: 11.9 vs Wisconsin: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 69.0 55
WIS Score 76.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 33.2 37.0 / 30.0
Assists 14.5 / 12.9 20.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.1 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 47.0 50.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 80.5 / 66.8 100.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 37.8 45.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.8 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 8.4 / 11.9 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
WIS Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
WIS Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
BALL
WIS
BALL
ML
60% 21-14
43% 13-17
69% 24-11
62% 18-11
ATS
51% 18-17
67% 20-10
69% 24-11
62% 18-11
TTL
57% 20-15
50% 15-15
100% 35-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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