Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Highlanders @ Lobos UCR @ UNM

UC RIVERSIDE

HIGHLANDERSUCR

2-0  |  Road

68
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 9:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

2-0  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
📊
LOBOS
0%
HIGHLANDERS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Mexico)
HighlandersUCR (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Highlanders Cover

46.0%

Lobos Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

UCR By 1-7 points

24.3%

UCR By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNM By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
75
UC RIVERSIDE
76
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
68
UC RIVERSIDE
75
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 UCR @ UNM 68 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +52.7% more
New Mexico: 10.2 vs UC Riverside: 6.7
Blocks (L5) +18.1% more
UC Riverside: 3.5 vs New Mexico: 2.9
Assists (L5) +14.7% more
UC Riverside: 15.7 vs New Mexico: 13.4
Free Throw % (L5) +14.7%
UC Riverside: 84.2% vs New Mexico: 69.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCR Score 75.0 68
UNM Score 76.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 31.0 28.0 / 52.0
Assists 13.4 / 15.7 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.5 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 47.7 52.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.5 / 84.2 65.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 36.2 35.0 / 31.0
Steals 10.2 / 6.7 8.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 12.4 5.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
14-14-2 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.3
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
UCR
UNM
UCR
ML
57% 21-16
66% 21-11
74% 25-9
75% 24-8
ATS
57% 21-16
59% 19-13
74% 25-9
75% 24-8
TTL
41% 15-22
66% 21-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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