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UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

VAQUEROSRGV

1-1  |  Road

65
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 9:00 PM ET
ExtraMile Arena
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

1-1  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
VAQUEROS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boise State)
VaquerosRGV (-3.5) 0 BroncosBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vaqueros Cover

46.0%

Broncos Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

RGV By 1-7 points

24.3%

RGV By 8-14 points

13.7%

BOIS By 1-7 points

26.2%

BOIS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
74
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
75
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
62
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
78
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 RGV @ BOIS 65 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +9.2%
Boise State: 83.8% vs UT Rio Grande Valley: 74.6%
Blocks (L5) +33.2% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 3.4 vs Boise State: 2.3
Turnovers (L5) +26.1% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 13.2 vs Boise State: 9.8
Rebounding (L5) +8.1% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 37.4 vs Boise State: 34.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RGV Score 74.0 65
BOIS Score 75.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.2 / 44.9 45.0 / 33.0
Assists 16.9 / 18.3 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.4 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 47.7 49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 83.8 / 74.6 66.0 / 45.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 37.4 44.0 / 20.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.9 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 13.2 20.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
BOIS Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
BOIS
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.5
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
RGV
BOIS
RGV
ML
50% 16-16
53% 16-14
61% 19-12
54% 15-13
ATS
50% 16-16
53% 16-14
61% 19-12
54% 15-13
TTL
56% 18-14
60% 18-12
100% 31-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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