Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pirates @ Cavaliers HAMP @ UVA

HAMPTON

PIRATESHAMP

1-1  |  Road

53
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 9:00 PM ET
John Paul Jones Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

2-0  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
PIRATES --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Virginia)
PiratesHAMP (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

27.4%

Cavaliers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

HAMP By 1-7 points

16.9%

HAMP By 8-14 points

6.8%

UVA By 1-7 points

26.8%

UVA By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
55
HAMPTON
61
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
45
HAMPTON
68
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 113.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 HAMP @ UVA 53 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.7% more
Virginia: 7.6 vs Hampton: 5.3
Free Throw % (L5) +5.2%
Virginia: 65.9% vs Hampton: 60.7%
Assists (L5) +14.7% more
Hampton: 18.0 vs Virginia: 15.4
Rebounding (L5) +14.0% more
Hampton: 44.2 vs Virginia: 38.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAMP Score 55.0 53
UVA Score 61.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 37.6 50.0 / 23.0
Assists 15.4 / 18.0 22.0 / 9.0
Blocks 7.6 / 5.3 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 48.1 55.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 65.9 / 60.7 82.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 44.2 49.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.7 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 10.8 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAMP
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAMP Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
UVA
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HAMP
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.1
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
HAMP
UVA
HAMP
ML
67% 24-12
53% 17-15
72% 26-10
75% 24-8
ATS
75% 27-9
50% 16-16
72% 26-10
75% 24-8
TTL
53% 19-17
68% 21-10-1
100% 36-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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