Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Wildcats NAU @ ARIZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA

LUMBERJACKSNAU

1-2  |  Road

49
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 9:00 PM ET
McKale Memorial Center
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

3-0  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
LUMBERJACKS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Arizona)
LumberjacksNAU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

0.0%

Wildcats Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

NAU By 1-7 points

0.0%

NAU By 8-14 points

0.0%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

0.1%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
70
NORTHERN ARIZONA
107
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
62
NORTHERN ARIZONA
88
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 NAU @ ARIZ 49 - 84
Nov 9, 2021 NAU @ ARIZ 52 - 81
Dec 7, 2020 NAU @ ARIZ 53 - 96
Nov 6, 2019 NAU @ ARIZ 52 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +102.2% more
Arizona: 3.6 vs Northern Arizona: 1.8
Turnovers (L5) +25.7% more
Arizona: 11.3 vs Northern Arizona: 9.0
Free Throw % (L5) +19.5%
Arizona: 74.5% vs Northern Arizona: 55.0%
Assists (L5) +17.5% more
Arizona: 17.0 vs Northern Arizona: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAU Score 70.0 49
ARIZ Score 107.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.4 / 35.3 42.0 / 25.0
Assists 17.0 / 14.5 22.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.8 9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.1 / 45.9 47.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 55.0 81.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 38.4 45.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.6 10.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 9.0 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -2.3
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
NAU
ARIZ
NAU
ML
67% 26-13
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
81% 26-6
ATS
74% 29-10
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
81% 26-6
TTL
56% 22-17
66% 21-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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