WESTERN ILLINOIS
LEATHERNECKSWIU
0-2 | Road
58
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
1-1 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
LEATHERNECKS
0%
ROADRUNNERS
100%
LEATHERNECKS
--
ROADRUNNERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUB +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUB)
WIU By 1-7 points
27.4%
WIU By 8-14 points
21.6%
CSUB By 1-7 points
20.1%
CSUB By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Illinois
84
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Cal State Bakersfield
80
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Simulated Score
Western Illinois
68
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Cal State Bakersfield
71
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Leathernecks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Roadrunners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Roadrunners (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Roadrunners (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 11, 2025
WIU @ CSUB
58 - 74
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
Western Illinois: 36.4%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 29.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Western Illinois: 45.3%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 40.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.1%
Western Illinois: 72.8%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 69.7%
Steals (L5)
+112.4% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 6.5
vs
Western Illinois: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIU Score
84.0
58
CSUB Score
80.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.7 / 36.4
33.0 / 50.0
Assists
11.1 / 7.2
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.0
13.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 45.3
44.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
69.7 / 72.8
80.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
42.2 / 33.3
38.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.5 / 3.1
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 13.0
13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIU
5-26-0
(16.1%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
CSUB
Advantage
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIU
Advantage
11-17-0
(39.3%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: -0.1
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUB
WIU
CSUB
WIU
ML
55%
17-14
45%
14-17
71%
22-9
61%
19-12
ATS
61%
19-12
52%
16-15
71%
22-9
61%
19-12
TTL
58%
18-13
45%
14-17
100%
31-0
100%
31-0