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UC SANTA BARBARA

GAUCHOSUCSB

3-0  |  Road

92
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 10:00 PM ET
Hornet Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

2-1  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
100%
📊
HORNETS
0%
GAUCHOS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
106.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Sacramento State)
GauchosUCSB (-3.5) 0 HornetsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gauchos Cover

21.2%

Hornets Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

UCSB By 1-7 points

13.7%

UCSB By 8-14 points

4.8%

SAC By 1-7 points

25.3%

SAC By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
49
UC SANTA BARBARA
57
SACRAMENTO STATE
Simulated Score
77
UC SANTA BARBARA
68
SACRAMENTO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hornets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gauchos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hornets (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Gauchos (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 106.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 UCSB @ SAC 92 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +109.0% more
Sacramento State: 5.8 vs UC Santa Barbara: 2.8
Turnovers (L5) +16.7% more
Sacramento State: 13.1 vs UC Santa Barbara: 11.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Sacramento State: 39.2% vs UC Santa Barbara: 36.5%
Steals (L5) +11.5% more
UC Santa Barbara: 6.2 vs Sacramento State: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score 49.0 92
SAC Score 57.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 36.5 48.0 / 48.0
Assists 16.1 / 15.4 18.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.8 / 2.8 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 46.5 53.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 73.1 / 73.4 65.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 36.2 33.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.2 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 11.2 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
SAC Advantage
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.1
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
UCSB
SAC
UCSB
ML
57% 17-13
59% 19-13
87% 26-4
72% 23-9
ATS
73% 22-8
62% 20-12
87% 27-4
72% 23-9
TTL
60% 18-12
47% 15-17
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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