Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Grizzlies @ Rebels MONT @ UNLV

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

2-1  |  Road

102
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 10:00 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

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93
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
REBELS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UNLV)
GrizzliesMONT (-3.5) 0 RebelsUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

46.0%

Rebels Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNLV -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

MONT By 1-7 points

24.3%

MONT By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNLV By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNLV By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
69
MONTANA
70
UNLV
Simulated Score
68
MONTANA
75
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rebels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 MONT @ UNLV 102 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +156.3% more
UNLV: 3.5 vs Montana: 1.4
Steals (L5) +37.2% more
UNLV: 6.9 vs Montana: 5.0
Assists (L5) +37.1% more
UNLV: 16.3 vs Montana: 11.9
Turnovers (L5) +15.7% more
Montana: 14.6 vs UNLV: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONT Score 69.0 102
UNLV Score 70.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 31.7 23.0 / 38.0
Assists 16.3 / 11.9 21.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.5 / 1.4 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 47.6 51.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 81.1 63.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 41.5 31.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.0 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 14.6 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONT Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
MONT
UNLV
MONT
ML
50% 17-17
39% 13-20
59% 20-14
73% 24-9
ATS
65% 22-12
55% 18-15
59% 20-14
73% 24-9
TTL
62% 21-13
59% 19-13-1
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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