OHIO
BOBCATSOHIO
1-1 | Road
60
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
2-0 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
GAELS
0%
BOBCATS
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
OHIO By 1-7 points
8.0%
OHIO By 8-14 points
2.2%
SMC By 1-7 points
20.1%
SMC By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Ohio
65
OHIO
Saint Mary's
77
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
Ohio
60
OHIO
Saint Mary's
72
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gaels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 11, 2025
OHIO @ SMC
60 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+86.9% more
Saint Mary's: 3.9
vs
Ohio: 2.1
Assists (L5)
+30.8% more
Saint Mary's: 15.3
vs
Ohio: 11.7
Turnovers (L5)
+20.7% more
Saint Mary's: 11.2
vs
Ohio: 9.2
Rebounding (L5)
+17.9% more
Saint Mary's: 37.1
vs
Ohio: 31.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score
65.0
60
SMC Score
77.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 27.0
50.0 / 25.0
Assists
15.3 / 11.7
22.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.9 / 2.1
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.1 / 48.7
50.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
79.7 / 67.5
77.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 31.4
40.0 / 29.0
Steals
5.0 / 4.8
6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 9.2
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.5
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
OHIO
SMC
OHIO
ML
56%
18-14
65%
20-11
82%
23-5
63%
19-11
ATS
62%
20-12
68%
21-10
83%
24-5
63%
19-11
TTL
53%
17-15
61%
19-12
100%
29-0
100%
30-0
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