DALLAS
STARSDAL
9-4-3 | Road
3
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
8-5-3 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 1.90 | 0.931 | -- |
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 2.85 | 0.909 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.90 Ldr
GAA
2.85
0.931 Ldr
Save %
0.909
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
SENATORS
0%
STARS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
DAL By 1 goal
12.1%
DAL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
OTT By 1 goal
19.7%
OTT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Senators
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Senators (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 30, 2025
OTT @ DAL
1 - 6
Nov 11, 2025
DAL @ OTT
3 - 2
Jan 12, 2025
DAL @ OTT
2 - 3
Jan 2, 2025
OTT @ DAL
2 - 4
Feb 22, 2024
DAL @ OTT
1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+41.8% more
Ottawa: 24.5
vs
Dallas: 17.3
Takeaways (L5)
+24.1% more
Ottawa: 5.3
vs
Dallas: 4.3
Power Play % (L5)
+29.0%
Dallas: 33.8%
vs
Ottawa: 4.7%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.0% more
Dallas: 24.4
vs
Ottawa: 22.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.0
3
OTT Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.9 / 14.5
13.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
57.4 / 57.3
46.9 / 53.1
Hits
24.5 / 17.3
15.0 / 24.0
Power Play %
4.7 / 33.8
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
22.4 / 24.4
29.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 4.3
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
DAL
OTT
DAL
ML
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-3
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
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