WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
7-7-1 | Road
4
CAROLINA
HURRICANESCAR
11-4-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Pyotr Kochetkov
#52 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.00 | 0.968 | -- |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | None-None | 0.00 | 0.000 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00
GAA
Ldr 0.00
0.968 Ldr
Save %
0.000
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
HURRICANES
100%
CAPITALS
--
HURRICANES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around CAR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
CAR By 1 goal
12.1%
CAR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Carolina
2
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Carolina
4
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hurricanes
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hurricanes (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Hurricanes (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 2, 2026
WSH @ CAR
5 - 2
Jan 31, 2026
CAR @ WSH
3 - 4
Dec 11, 2025
CAR @ WSH
3 - 2
Nov 11, 2025
WSH @ CAR
4 - 1
May 15, 2025
CAR @ WSH
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+12.5% more
Washington: 13.2
vs
Carolina: 11.5
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.0%
Washington: 52.1%
vs
Carolina: 48.1%
Takeaways (L5)
+41.9% more
Carolina: 6.5
vs
Washington: 4.6
Shots on Goal (L5)
+23.4% more
Carolina: 36.5
vs
Washington: 29.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
4
CAR Score
2.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.5 / 13.2
10.0 / 21.0
Faceoff %
48.1 / 52.1
54.0 / 46.0
Hits
18.0 / 19.3
22.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
25.9 / 6.8
0.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal
36.5 / 29.6
31.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
6.5 / 4.6
6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
WSH
CAR
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
TTL
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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