Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Kings DEN @ SAC

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

7-2  |  Road

122
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 11:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

3-7  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
NUGGETS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
189.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Sacramento)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

4.5%

Kings Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

DEN By 1-7 points

3.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

0.6%

SAC By 1-7 points

12.2%

SAC By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
86
DENVER
103
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
109
DENVER
117
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u243.0 Win
Proj Total: 189.0
D
Sim u243.0 Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 136 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 SAC @ DEN 128 - 123
Nov 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 122 - 108
Nov 3, 2025 SAC @ DEN 124 - 130
Apr 9, 2025 DEN @ SAC 124 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.6% more
Sacramento: 14.8 vs Denver: 11.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Sacramento: 41.1% vs Denver: 35.7%
Assists (L5) +12.9% more
Denver: 27.4 vs Sacramento: 23.9
Steals (L5) +10.0% more
Denver: 7.1 vs Sacramento: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 86.0 122
SAC Score 103.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.1 / 35.7 30.0 / 39.0
Assists 23.9 / 27.4 31.0 / 24.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 50.4 48.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 70.2 70.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 38.4 / 42.1 35.0 / 48.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.1 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 11.9 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
DEN
SAC
DEN
ML
55% 55-45
54% 57-48
61% 50-32
55% 47-39
ATS
54% 52-45-3
63% 65-38-2
61% 50-32
55% 47-39
TTL
58% 57-42-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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