NEW HAVEN
CHARGERSNHVN
0-3 | Road
73
UMASS LOWELL
RIVER HAWKSUML
1-1 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
0%
RIVER HAWKS
100%
CHARGERS
--
RIVER HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
UMASS LOWELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UML +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UML)
NHVN By 1-7 points
26.8%
NHVN By 8-14 points
18.6%
UML By 1-7 points
23.0%
UML By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New Haven
28
NEW HAVEN
UMass Lowell
26
UMASS LOWELL
Simulated Score
New Haven
61
NEW HAVEN
UMass Lowell
83
UMASS LOWELL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Chargers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
River Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
River Hawks (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
River Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 10, 2025
NHVN @ UML
73 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+111.8% more
UMass Lowell: 12.9
vs
New Haven: 6.1
Blocks (L5)
+80.1% more
UMass Lowell: 2.8
vs
New Haven: 1.6
Rebounding (L5)
+31.1% more
UMass Lowell: 32.9
vs
New Haven: 25.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.6%
UMass Lowell: 72.7%
vs
New Haven: 58.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NHVN Score
28.0
73
UML Score
26.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 21.0
24.0 / 41.0
Assists
12.9 / 6.1
10.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.8 / 1.6
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 39.3
35.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 58.1
78.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 25.1
34.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.6 / 5.6
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 13.9
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NHVN
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
UML
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NHVN
Advantage
15-13-0
(53.6%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
UML
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -3.5
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UML
NHVN
UML
NHVN
ML
70%
23-10
71%
22-9
58%
19-14
68%
21-10
ATS
70%
23-10
74%
23-8
58%
19-14
68%
21-10
TTL
58%
19-14
42%
13-18
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
