LAMAR
CARDINALSLAM
1-0 | Road
65
TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
1-1 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
HORNED FROGS
0%
CARDINALS
--
HORNED FROGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (TCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TCU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)
LAM By 1-7 points
21.6%
LAM By 8-14 points
10.7%
TCU By 1-7 points
27.2%
TCU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Lamar
65
LAMAR
TCU
68
TCU
Simulated Score
Lamar
58
LAMAR
TCU
85
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Horned Frogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Horned Frogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Horned Frogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Horned Frogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 10, 2025
LAM @ TCU
65 - 78
Nov 11, 2022
LAM @ TCU
66 - 77
Dec 14, 2019
LAM @ TCU
50 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+16.3% more
TCU: 8.9
vs
Lamar: 7.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.2%
TCU: 72.3%
vs
Lamar: 68.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+11.5% more
Lamar: 44.3
vs
TCU: 39.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Lamar: 30.5%
vs
TCU: 26.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAM Score
65.0
65
TCU Score
68.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.8 / 30.5
42.0 / 37.0
Assists
14.2 / 14.2
15.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.2
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
42.7 / 42.0
51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
72.3 / 68.1
67.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
39.2 / 44.3
36.0 / 28.0
Steals
8.9 / 7.6
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 12.9
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAM
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
TCU
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAM
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
TCU
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LAM
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.1
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
LAM
TCU
LAM
ML
74%
26-9
55%
16-13
63%
19-11
59%
17-12
ATS
74%
26-9
52%
15-14
63%
19-11
60%
18-12
TTL
66%
23-12
72%
21-8
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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