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MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

1-0  |  Road

80
FINAL
Mon, Nov 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Sanford Pentagon
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

2-0  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
CYCLONES
0%
BULLDOGS --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Iowa State)
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

46.0%

Cyclones Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ISU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

MSST By 1-7 points

24.3%

MSST By 8-14 points

13.7%

ISU By 1-7 points

26.2%

ISU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
88
MISSISSIPPI STATE
89
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
69
MISSISSIPPI STATE
73
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cyclones Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cyclones Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cyclones (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Cyclones (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 10, 2025 MSST @ ISU 80 - 96
Jan 30, 2021 ISU @ MSST 56 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.4% more
Iowa State: 10.6 vs Mississippi State: 8.4
Turnovers (L5) +21.8% more
Iowa State: 11.9 vs Mississippi State: 9.8
Assists (L5) +17.6% more
Iowa State: 16.8 vs Mississippi State: 14.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Iowa State: 39.9% vs Mississippi State: 30.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 88.0 80
ISU Score 89.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.9 / 30.8 23.0 / 41.0
Assists 16.8 / 14.3 21.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.8 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 52.7 / 45.0 51.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 67.0 / 70.7 76.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 38.2 / 40.4 31.0 / 37.0
Steals 10.6 / 8.4 12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 9.8 9.0 / 26.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
MSST
ISU
MSST
ML
57% 21-16
66% 21-11
76% 26-8
55% 17-14
ATS
62% 23-14
56% 18-14
76% 26-8
55% 17-14
TTL
54% 20-17
59% 19-13
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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