Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona @ Cincinnati ARIZ @ CIN

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

6-3  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 12:00 PM ET
Nippert Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

7-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
@
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
Player
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
Max Fletcher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA
0%
📊
CINCINNATI
100%
ARIZONA --
CINCINNATI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Arizona)
ArizonaARIZ (-3.5) 0 CincinnatiCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona Cover

76.2%

Cincinnati Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

ARIZ By 1-6 points

15.3%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

19.7%

CIN By 1-6 points

10.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
34
ARIZONA
24
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA
27
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arizona Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Cincinnati Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Arizona (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Cincinnati (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 CIN @ ARIZ 7 - 34
Nov 15, 2025 ARIZ @ CIN 30 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.5% more
Cincinnati: 203.7 vs Arizona: 154.9
Turnovers (L5) +24.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.2 vs Arizona: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +10.6% more
Cincinnati: 416.7 vs Arizona: 376.8
First Downs (L5) +10.0% more
Cincinnati: 21.5 vs Arizona: 19.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 34.0 30
CIN Score 24.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 19.5 14.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 203.7 / 154.9 190.0 / 181.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 416.7 / 376.8 344.0 / 475.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
CIN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
CIN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ARIZ
CIN
ARIZ
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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