Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Air Force @ UConn AFA @ CONN

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

3-6  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 12:00 PM ET
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCONN

UCONNCONN

7-3  |  Home

26
Key Game
Mason Hayes
KEY GAME

Mason Hayes

#18 | Wide Receiver
@
Kylish Hicks
KEY GAME

Kylish Hicks

#18 | Linebacker
Player
Mason Hayes None-None
Kylish Hicks None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AIR FORCE
100%
📊
UCONN
0%
AIR FORCE --
UCONN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (UConn)
Air ForceAFA (-3.5) 0 UConnCONN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Air Force Cover

2.3%

UConn Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CONN -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

AFA By 1-6 points

1.4%

AFA By 7-13 points

0.5%

CONN By 1-6 points

3.8%

CONN By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
10
AIR FORCE
38
UCONN
Simulated Score
17
AIR FORCE
31
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UConn Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UConn Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UConn (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim UConn (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u64.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u64.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 AFA @ CONN 16 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +16.1% more
UConn: 440.0 vs Air Force: 379.1
Turnovers (L5) +90.0% more
Air Force: 1.0 vs UConn: 0.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.8% more
Air Force: 263.8 vs UConn: 135.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Air Force: 0.5 vs UConn: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFA Score 10.0 16
CONN Score 38.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 22.3 18.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 135.0 / 263.8 192.0 / 290.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 440.0 / 379.1 347.0 / 356.0
Turnovers 0.1 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
CONN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AFA
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
CONN Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
⚖️ Over/Under
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
AFA
CONN
AFA
ML
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
ATS
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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