Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Michigan @ Northwestern MICH @ NU

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

7-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 12:00 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

5-4  |  Home

22
Key Game
Hudson Hollenbeck
KEY GAME

Hudson Hollenbeck

#90 | Punter
@
Callen Campbell
KEY GAME

Callen Campbell

#44 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Hudson Hollenbeck None-None
Callen Campbell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN
0%
📊
NORTHWESTERN
100%
MICHIGAN --
NORTHWESTERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
24.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MichiganMICH (-3.5) 0 NorthwesternNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan Cover

38.8%

Northwestern Cover

61.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NU +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

MICH By 1-6 points

17.0%

MICH By 7-13 points

18.0%

NU By 1-6 points

14.7%

NU By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
14
MICHIGAN
10
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
13
MICHIGAN
38
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Northwestern Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Northwestern (+10) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
C
Sim Northwestern (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 24.0
C
Sim o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 MICH @ NU 24 - 22
Nov 23, 2024 NU @ MICH 6 - 50
Oct 23, 2021 NU @ MICH 7 - 33
Sep 29, 2018 MICH @ NU 20 - 17
Oct 10, 2015 NU @ MICH 0 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.2% more
Michigan: 228.5 vs Northwestern: 166.3
Total Yards (L5) +15.9% more
Michigan: 388.6 vs Northwestern: 326.7
First Downs (L5) +8.3% more
Michigan: 20.1 vs Northwestern: 18.4
Turnovers (L5) +42.5% more
Northwestern: 1.7 vs Michigan: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MICH Score 14.0 24
NU Score 10.0 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 20.1 11.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 166.3 / 228.5 61.0 / 216.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.17 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 326.7 / 388.6 245.0 / 496.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.2 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
NU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
NU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.9
NU
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
MICH
NU
MICH
ML
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
ATS
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
TTL
100% 3-0
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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