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UTSA

UTSAUTSA

4-5  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 12:00 PM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

CHARLOTTECLT

1-8  |  Home

7
Key Game
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
@
Bronson Long
KEY GAME

Bronson Long

#95 | Punter
Player
Caile Hogan None-None
Bronson Long None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTSA
0%
📊
CHARLOTTE
100%
UTSA --
CHARLOTTE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-52.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +52.0 points (UTSA)
UTSAUTSA (-3.5) 0 CharlotteCLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTSA Cover

100.0%

Charlotte Cover

0.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTSA -52.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

UTSA By 1-6 points

0.0%

UTSA By 7-13 points

0.2%

CLT By 1-6 points

0.0%

CLT By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
52
UTSA
0
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
17
UTSA
31
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UTSA Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Charlotte Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UTSA (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -52.0
C
Sim Charlotte (-16.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 UTSA @ CLT 28 - 7
Nov 26, 2016 CLT @ UTSA 14 - 33
Nov 14, 2015 UTSA @ CLT 30 - 27
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +32.0% more
UTSA: 22.4 vs Charlotte: 15.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.2% more
UTSA: 134.8 vs Charlotte: 94.1
Total Yards (L5) +18.4% more
UTSA: 409.6 vs Charlotte: 334.0
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
UTSA: 0.6 vs Charlotte: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 52.0 28
CLT Score 0.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.3 / 22.4 13.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 94.1 / 134.8 51.0 / 215.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 334.0 / 409.6 197.0 / 521.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
CLT
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
CLT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
CLT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLT
UTSA
CLT
UTSA
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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