Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Florida @ Navy USF @ NAVY

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

7-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 12:00 PM ET
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

7-2  |  Home

41
Key Game
Luke Goater
KEY GAME

Luke Goater

#39 | Punter
@
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
Player
Luke Goater None-None
Jacob Carlson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH FLORIDA
0%
📊
NAVY
100%
SOUTH FLORIDA --
NAVY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (South Florida)
South FloridaUSF (-3.5) 0 NavyNAVY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Florida Cover

97.3%

Navy Cover

2.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USF -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

USF By 1-6 points

4.2%

USF By 7-13 points

9.6%

NAVY By 1-6 points

1.6%

NAVY By 7-13 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
52
SOUTH FLORIDA
25
NAVY
Simulated Score
24
SOUTH FLORIDA
27
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI South Florida Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Navy Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI South Florida (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
C
Sim Navy (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o62.5 Win
Proj Total: 77.0
C
Sim u62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 USF @ NAVY 38 - 41
Nov 9, 2024 NAVY @ USF 28 - 7
Sep 30, 2023 USF @ NAVY 44 - 30
Oct 19, 2019 USF @ NAVY 3 - 35
Oct 28, 2016 NAVY @ USF 45 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +28.4% more
South Florida: 513.9 vs Navy: 367.9
First Downs (L5) +26.1% more
South Florida: 24.9 vs Navy: 18.4
Turnovers (L5) +17.6% more
South Florida: 1.3 vs Navy: 1.0
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Navy: 0.5 vs South Florida: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 52.0 38
NAVY Score 25.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 24.9 21.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 273.5 / 260.7 338.0 / 200.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 367.9 / 513.9 524.0 / 556.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
NAVY
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
USF
NAVY
USF
ML
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
TTL
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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