Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / West Virginia @ Arizona St WVU @ ASU

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

4-6  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

6-3  |  Home

25
Key Game
Nate Gabriel
KEY GAME

Nate Gabriel

#93 | Defensive Lineman
@
Kanyon Floyd
KEY GAME

Kanyon Floyd

#31 | Punter
Player
Nate Gabriel None-None
Kanyon Floyd None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WEST VIRGINIA
100%
📊
ARIZONA ST
0%
WEST VIRGINIA --
ARIZONA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Arizona State)
West VirginiaWVU (-3.5) 0 Arizona StASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

West Virginia Cover

3.7%

Arizona St Cover

96.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ASU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

WVU By 1-6 points

2.2%

WVU By 7-13 points

0.9%

ASU By 1-6 points

5.3%

ASU By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
WEST VIRGINIA
41
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
20
WEST VIRGINIA
31
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Sim Arizona St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 WVU @ ASU 23 - 25
Jan 2, 2016 WVU @ ASU 43 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +20.2% more
Arizona State: 423.7 vs West Virginia: 352.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.1% more
Arizona State: 186.0 vs West Virginia: 167.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 16.0 23
ASU Score 41.0 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 19.8 18.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 186.0 / 167.4 123.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 423.7 / 352.5 330.0 / 421.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.9
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
WVU
ASU
WVU
ML
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3-1
0% 0-4
25% 1-3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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