Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Colorado St @ New Mexico CSU @ UNM

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

2-7  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM)
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

6-3  |  Home

20
Key Game
Kenyon Agurs
KEY GAME

Kenyon Agurs

#56 | Linebacker
@
Jalen McIver
KEY GAME

Jalen McIver

#94 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Kenyon Agurs None-None
Jalen McIver None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO ST
100%
📊
NEW MEXICO
0%
COLORADO ST --
NEW MEXICO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (New Mexico)
Colorado StCSU (-3.5) 0 New MexicoUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado St Cover

23.8%

New Mexico Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

CSU By 1-6 points

10.7%

CSU By 7-13 points

7.3%

UNM By 1-6 points

15.3%

UNM By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21
COLORADO STATE
31
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
17
COLORADO STATE
31
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI New Mexico Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim New Mexico Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim New Mexico (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 CSU @ UNM 17 - 20
Oct 26, 2024 UNM @ CSU 6 - 17
Nov 25, 2022 UNM @ CSU 0 - 17
Oct 16, 2021 CSU @ UNM 36 - 7
Oct 11, 2019 CSU @ UNM 35 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.9% more
New Mexico: 161.8 vs Colorado State: 116.5
Total Yards (L5) +38.6% more
New Mexico: 427.6 vs Colorado State: 308.6
First Downs (L5) +16.8% more
New Mexico: 19.3 vs Colorado State: 16.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
New Mexico: 0.4 vs Colorado State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSU Score 21.0 17
UNM Score 31.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 16.5 15.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 161.8 / 116.5 122.0 / 13.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 427.6 / 308.6 348.0 / 299.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.5
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
CSU
UNM
CSU
ML
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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